The Midterm That Repriced AI Capex
GeopoliticsNovember 4, 202612 min read
The Market Bets on Talks, Not Peace
GeopoliticsOctober 23, 202611 min read
AI's Approval Crash Reaches the Ballot Box
GeopoliticsOctober 21, 202615 min read
The Lab That Addressed the IMF
GeopoliticsOctober 19, 202613 min read
Allies Break Ranks as Markets Abandon Ukraine Peace
GeopoliticsOctober 16, 202613 min read
The Starlink Chokepoint
DefenseOctober 14, 202615 min read
Ukraine Hit Yandex's Data Centers
DefenseOctober 12, 202612 min read
Amazon Told Towns to Stop Fighting. The Grid Said Otherwise.
GeopoliticsOctober 9, 202612 min read
The Pentagon Gave Its Future to the Billionaires
DefenseOctober 5, 202612 min read
AI Capex Is Now a Subsidy Fight
EconomicsOctober 2, 202612 min read
The 'Bretton Woods of Super Intelligence' Is a Bluff
GeopoliticsSeptember 30, 202612 min read
Anthropic Said No to the Pentagon. It Got Blacklisted.
GeopoliticsSeptember 25, 202613 min read
Europe Drops Russia Sanctions as Its Airspace Gets Probed
GeopoliticsSeptember 23, 202612 min read
Open Weights Are Now Statecraft
GeopoliticsSeptember 21, 202613 min read
The Pentagon's Europe Drawdown Is Already Priced In
GeopoliticsSeptember 18, 202612 min read
Germany Cracks: The AfD and the 500B Doom Loop
GeopoliticsSeptember 14, 202614 min read
NATO's Quiet Turn to Autonomous War
DefenseSeptember 11, 202613 min read
Switzerland Just Fired Microsoft
GeopoliticsSeptember 7, 202612 min read
Trump's Venezuela Oil Gambit
GeopoliticsSeptember 4, 202614 min read
How Taiwan Risk Is Repricing the Chip Supply Chain
GeopoliticsSeptember 2, 202611 min read
Russia's Frozen War Is Cracking at the Table
GeopoliticsAugust 31, 202613 min read
The 50% Wall
EconomicsAugust 26, 202613 min read
When the Grid Says No
GeopoliticsAugust 24, 202614 min read
The Billionaire-Tax Illusion
EconomicsAugust 21, 202612 min read
Alliances as Leverage: Trump's Korea Drill Gambit
DiplomacyAugust 17, 202613 min read
Sanders Demands a Pause. Polymarket Prices It at 96%.
GeopoliticsAugust 16, 202611 min read
The Open-Weight 'Letter' Is a Lobbying War
GeopoliticsJuly 27, 202612 min read
The Security Incident That Argued For Open Weights
GeopoliticsJuly 22, 202614 min read
China's K3 Gambit Is a Power Move, Not a Launch
GeopoliticsJuly 17, 202612 min read
Trump's Hormuz Toll Play and the 88% Market Spike
GeopoliticsJuly 13, 202614 min read
Trump vs the Alliance: What the Ankara NATO Summit Revealed
GeopoliticsJuly 10, 202616 min read
Netanyahu's 18-Point Collapse
GeopoliticsJuly 3, 202611 min read
The Weights Embargo
GeopoliticsJune 24, 202610 min read
China Just Won the Rare-Earths Race
GeopoliticsJune 22, 202611 min read
The Trillionaire Playbook
GeopoliticsJune 12, 202611 min read
The Apache Exchange: US-Iran Goes Direct
GeopoliticsJune 10, 202611 min read
The Ceasefire That Wasn't
GeopoliticsJune 8, 202611 min read
Nationalize AI? Bernie's 50% Stake vs. Trump's Partnership
GeopoliticsJune 5, 202612 min read
Regulatory Capture in Real Time
GeopoliticsJune 3, 20269 min read
The $965B Bet Needs Power to Run
GeopoliticsJune 1, 202614 min read
Russia's Oreshnik on Kyiv: The Strike Nobody Could Stop
GeopoliticsMay 25, 202613 min read
California vs Washington on AI: Polymarket Says 10%
GeopoliticsMay 22, 202610 min read
Chamath's 18 Months: Taiwan, TSMC-Arizona, and the Clock
GeopoliticsMay 18, 202612 min read
Xi Said the Quiet Part: Taiwan 'Could Trigger Conflict'
GeopoliticsMay 15, 20268 min read
Trump Arrives in Beijing Already Losing the Room
GeopoliticsMay 13, 202612 min read
Sovereign Compute, Sovereign Army: The 2026 Through-Line
GeopoliticsMay 11, 202614 min read
AI Data Center Bans: 69 Jurisdictions, Polymarket 93%
GeopoliticsMay 8, 202610 min read
Polymarket's 78% Iran Peace Odds Misprice the Hormuz Tail
GeopoliticsMay 6, 202616 min read
Hormuz De-Escalation Reprices Energy and Compute Together
GeopoliticsMay 1, 202613 min read
Russia's Reserve Wall Cracks, Polymarket Won't Move
GeopoliticsApril 27, 202612 min read
What the Iran Ceasefire Extension Is Really Hiding
GeopoliticsApril 22, 20268 min read
Iran's Prediction Markets Tell Two Stories
GeopoliticsApril 20, 202611 min read
The Iran Ceasefire Is Theater
GeopoliticsApril 17, 202612 min read
The Xi Variable: How China Is Breaking Maximum Pressure
GeopoliticsApril 15, 202612 min read
The Hormuz Blockade: UK Refuses, NATO Fractures
GeopoliticsApril 13, 202611 min read