FILE 042Geopolitics14 min read
When the Grid Says No
AI capex hits $765B, passing oil and gas. But from Texas to New York, the grid is pushing back — and so are voters.
August 24, 2026
Case file · US-2026 · Source confidence: High
The 50% Wall
Washington slapped 50% tariffs on Canada. Ottawa matched dollar-for-dollar. Who actually holds leverage when your largest trading partner hits back?
FILE 041Economics12 min read
The Billionaire-Tax Illusion
Musk's $1.4T covers 77 days of federal spending. The math exposes what both sides of the wealth-tax debate refuse to say.
August 21, 2026
FILE 040Geopolitics11 min read
Reddit Sees War. Polymarket Sees Peace. Who's Right on Iran?
Five Reddit threads scream escalation while Polymarket prices ceasefire at 97%. The divergence reveals who reads headlines and who reads incentives.
August 19, 2026
Areas of Focus
05 DesksDesk 01
Geopolitics
Great power competition, alliances, and the shifting global order
Desk 02
Defense
Military strategy, force posture, and the technology of warfare
Desk 03
Economics
Sanctions, trade wars, resource competition, and economic statecraft
Desk 04
Diplomacy
Treaties, negotiations, institutions, and the art of statecraft
Desk 05
Intelligence
Espionage, covert operations, and the information battlespace
The Docket
Full docket →FILE 039FILE 038FILE 037FILE 036FILE 035FILE 034FILE 033FILE 032
Alliances as Leverage: Trump's Korea Drill Gambit
DiplomacyAugust 17, 202613 min read
Sanders Demands a Pause. Polymarket Prices It at 96%.
GeopoliticsAugust 16, 202611 min read
The Open-Weight 'Letter' Is a Lobbying War
GeopoliticsJuly 27, 202612 min read
The Security Incident That Argued For Open Weights
GeopoliticsJuly 22, 202614 min read
The South China Sea Is the Flashpoint Nobody Is Pricing
GeopoliticsJuly 20, 202615 min read
China's K3 Gambit Is a Power Move, Not a Launch
GeopoliticsJuly 17, 202612 min read
Who Gets to Start Wars? The Senate Just Forced the Question
GeopoliticsJuly 15, 202612 min read
Trump's Hormuz Toll Play and the 88% Market Spike
GeopoliticsJuly 13, 202614 min read
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