FILE 030Geopolitics11 min read
Netanyahu's 18-Point Collapse
Polymarket's biggest geopolitics bet is a 38-38 dead heat on Israel's next PM. What $1.39M in 24-hour volume knows about the coming power transition.
July 3, 2026
Case file · ANKARA-2026 · Source confidence: High
Trump vs the Alliance: What the Ankara NATO Summit Revealed
Ankara exposed NATO's new operating system: militarily stronger, politically conditional, and one bilateral deal away from irrelevance.
FILE 029Geopolitics10 min read
The Distillation Paradox: Embargo vs. Open Weights
Washington gates GPT-5.6 while DeepSeek V4 runs free on Huawei chips. The export-control logic collapses on contact.
June 26, 2026
FILE 028Geopolitics10 min read
The Weights Embargo
How the June 12 export ban turned frontier AI models into a national-security chokehold — and what it means for the next model launch.
June 24, 2026
Areas of Focus
05 DesksDesk 01
Geopolitics
Great power competition, alliances, and the shifting global order
Desk 02
Defense
Military strategy, force posture, and the technology of warfare
Desk 03
Economics
Sanctions, trade wars, resource competition, and economic statecraft
Desk 04
Diplomacy
Treaties, negotiations, institutions, and the art of statecraft
Desk 05
Intelligence
Espionage, covert operations, and the information battlespace
The Docket
Full docket →FILE 027FILE 026FILE 025FILE 024FILE 023FILE 022FILE 021FILE 020
China Just Won the Rare-Earths Race
GeopoliticsJune 22, 202611 min read
The Trillionaire Playbook
GeopoliticsJune 12, 202611 min read
The Apache Exchange: US-Iran Goes Direct
GeopoliticsJune 10, 202611 min read
The Ceasefire That Wasn't
GeopoliticsJune 8, 202611 min read
Nationalize AI? Bernie's 50% Stake vs. Trump's Partnership
GeopoliticsJune 5, 202612 min read
Regulatory Capture in Real Time
GeopoliticsJune 3, 20269 min read
The $965B Bet Needs Power to Run
GeopoliticsJune 1, 202614 min read
Russia's Oreshnik on Kyiv: The Strike Nobody Could Stop
GeopoliticsMay 25, 202613 min read
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