FILE 044Geopolitics13 min read
Russia's Frozen War Is Cracking at the Table
Ceasefire holds at 98%, but agreement odds just cratered 17%. What the prediction-market divergence reveals about the power balance.
August 31, 2026
Case file · TSMC-2026 · Source confidence: High
How Taiwan Risk Is Repricing the Chip Supply Chain
Nvidia's $3.5B MediaTek bet is a board-level hedge on a Taiwan scenario. The chip supply chain is being quietly repriced.
FILE 043Economics13 min read
The 50% Wall
Washington slapped 50% tariffs on Canada. Ottawa matched dollar-for-dollar. Who actually holds leverage when your largest trading partner hits back?
August 26, 2026
FILE 042Geopolitics14 min read
When the Grid Says No
AI capex hits $765B, passing oil and gas. But from Texas to New York, the grid is pushing back — and so are voters.
August 24, 2026
Areas of Focus
05 DesksDesk 01
Geopolitics
Great power competition, alliances, and the shifting global order
Desk 02
Defense
Military strategy, force posture, and the technology of warfare
Desk 03
Economics
Sanctions, trade wars, resource competition, and economic statecraft
Desk 04
Diplomacy
Treaties, negotiations, institutions, and the art of statecraft
Desk 05
Intelligence
Espionage, covert operations, and the information battlespace
The Docket
Full docket →FILE 041FILE 040FILE 039FILE 038FILE 037FILE 036FILE 035FILE 034
The Billionaire-Tax Illusion
EconomicsAugust 21, 202612 min read
Reddit Sees War. Polymarket Sees Peace. Who's Right on Iran?
GeopoliticsAugust 19, 202611 min read
Alliances as Leverage: Trump's Korea Drill Gambit
DiplomacyAugust 17, 202613 min read
Sanders Demands a Pause. Polymarket Prices It at 96%.
GeopoliticsAugust 16, 202611 min read
The Open-Weight 'Letter' Is a Lobbying War
GeopoliticsJuly 27, 202612 min read
The Security Incident That Argued For Open Weights
GeopoliticsJuly 22, 202614 min read
The South China Sea Is the Flashpoint Nobody Is Pricing
GeopoliticsJuly 20, 202615 min read
China's K3 Gambit Is a Power Move, Not a Launch
GeopoliticsJuly 17, 202612 min read
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