Geopolitics13 min read
Russia's Oreshnik on Kyiv: The Strike Nobody Could Stop
Russia hit Kyiv with the Oreshnik MIRV hypersonic. Ukraine knew, couldn't stop it. Four lessons on Putin's summer-offensive calculus.
May 25, 2026
Geopolitics Analysis
The Arc of Power
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In-depth analysis of global power dynamics, defense strategy, economic statecraft, and diplomatic maneuvering. Understanding the forces that shape the world order.
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Rigorous analysis across the domains that define global power.
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Great power competition, alliances, and the shifting global order
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Latest Analysis
Recent dispatches on global power and strategy.
Geopolitics10 min read
California vs Washington on AI: Polymarket Says 10%
Newsom signed an AI job-loss EO. Polymarket priced Trump's federal review out from 43% to 10% in a day. The states-vs-feds AI arbitrage is open.
May 22, 2026
Geopolitics12 min read
Chamath's 18 Months: Taiwan, TSMC-Arizona, and the Clock
Chamath says Taiwan stops mattering in 18 months. Polymarket prices invasion at 7%. The disagreement isn't about war — it's about the decoupling clock.
May 18, 2026
Geopolitics8 min read
Xi Said the Quiet Part: Taiwan 'Could Trigger Conflict'
Xi told Trump in Beijing that mishandling Taiwan could spark clashes. Polymarket prices a 2026 invasion at 7%. One of them is wrong.
May 15, 2026
Geopolitics12 min read
Trump Arrives in Beijing Already Losing the Room
Iran stalemate, 4% CPI, and a collapsing damage narrative leave Trump bargaining from weakness in Beijing. The risk: Taiwan policy drift without Congress.
May 13, 2026
Geopolitics14 min read
Sovereign Compute, Sovereign Army: The 2026 Through-Line
Jack Clark's 'Radical Optionality,' the EU army push, and Netanyahu's US-aid phase-out trace the same sovereign-capacity trade.
May 11, 2026
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The Arc of Power examines the forces that shape the global order. Our analysis cuts through noise to reveal the structural dynamics of power -- who holds it, how they wield it, and what comes next.
We bring clarity to complexity. From great power competition to regional flashpoints, from economic warfare to intelligence operations, every analysis is grounded in evidence and strategic logic.
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