Geopolitics13 min read
Russia's Oreshnik on Kyiv: The Strike Nobody Could Stop
Russia hit Kyiv with the Oreshnik MIRV hypersonic. Ukraine knew, couldn't stop it. Four lessons on Putin's summer-offensive calculus.
May 25, 2026
Analysis
In-depth coverage of geopolitics, defense, economic statecraft, diplomacy, and intelligence.
Geopolitics10 min read
California vs Washington on AI: Polymarket Says 10%
Newsom signed an AI job-loss EO. Polymarket priced Trump's federal review out from 43% to 10% in a day. The states-vs-feds AI arbitrage is open.
May 22, 2026
Geopolitics12 min read
Chamath's 18 Months: Taiwan, TSMC-Arizona, and the Clock
Chamath says Taiwan stops mattering in 18 months. Polymarket prices invasion at 7%. The disagreement isn't about war — it's about the decoupling clock.
May 18, 2026
Geopolitics8 min read
Xi Said the Quiet Part: Taiwan 'Could Trigger Conflict'
Xi told Trump in Beijing that mishandling Taiwan could spark clashes. Polymarket prices a 2026 invasion at 7%. One of them is wrong.
May 15, 2026
Geopolitics12 min read
Trump Arrives in Beijing Already Losing the Room
Iran stalemate, 4% CPI, and a collapsing damage narrative leave Trump bargaining from weakness in Beijing. The risk: Taiwan policy drift without Congress.
May 13, 2026
Geopolitics14 min read
Sovereign Compute, Sovereign Army: The 2026 Through-Line
Jack Clark's 'Radical Optionality,' the EU army push, and Netanyahu's US-aid phase-out trace the same sovereign-capacity trade.
May 11, 2026
Geopolitics10 min read
AI Data Center Bans: 69 Jurisdictions, Polymarket 93%
Polymarket prices an AI data center moratorium at 93% YES. 69 jurisdictions ban new builds. The political-cost ledger catches up to the capex.
May 8, 2026
Geopolitics16 min read
Polymarket's 78% Iran Peace Odds Misprice the Hormuz Tail
A French container ship took a cruise missile in Hormuz May 5. The same day, Polymarket's US-Iran peace odds spiked +12% to 78%. The trade is the misprice.
May 6, 2026
Geopolitics13 min read
UAE Quits OPEC: How the Hormuz War Cracked the Cartel
UAE's May 1 OPEC exit ends 59 years of cartel discipline. The Hormuz war, the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline, and who replaces the cartel.
May 4, 2026
Geopolitics13 min read
Hormuz De-Escalation Reprices Energy and Compute Together
Polymarket's largest single-day mover ($4.4M, +75.4%) just bet on Trump ending Iran ops. Why the same chokepoint reprices Brent and AWS data-center risk.
May 1, 2026
Geopolitics12 min read
Russia's Reserve Wall Cracks, Polymarket Won't Move
WaPo says Russia's mood is bleak; Russia's own minister says reserves are spent. Polymarket prices a long war. The narrative-vs-price gap is the trade.
April 27, 2026
Geopolitics10 min read
Panda Bonds: China's Quiet Play for European Loyalty
While the US bleeds in Hormuz, Beijing is cementing European loyalty through panda bonds. Q1 2026: record 88B yuan raised, 101% YoY surge. Here's the strategy.
April 24, 2026