The Midterm That Repriced AI Capex
GeopoliticsNovember 4, 202612 min read
Ukraine's Peace Track Masks an Escalating Shadow War
GeopoliticsNovember 2, 202612 min read
Netanyahu Lost His Majority and Called It Stolen
GeopoliticsOctober 30, 202610 min read
The Hype Picks Moonshot. The Money Picks Xiaomi.
EconomicsOctober 26, 202611 min read
The Market Bets on Talks, Not Peace
GeopoliticsOctober 23, 202611 min read
Allies Break Ranks as Markets Abandon Ukraine Peace
GeopoliticsOctober 16, 202613 min read
The Starlink Chokepoint
DefenseOctober 14, 202615 min read
Ukraine Hit Yandex's Data Centers
DefenseOctober 12, 202612 min read
The 'Bretton Woods of Super Intelligence' Is a Bluff
GeopoliticsSeptember 30, 202612 min read
US-Iran Talks This Week: What the Money Already Prices
GeopoliticsSeptember 28, 202612 min read
Europe Drops Russia Sanctions as Its Airspace Gets Probed
GeopoliticsSeptember 23, 202612 min read
The Pentagon's Europe Drawdown Is Already Priced In
GeopoliticsSeptember 18, 202612 min read
NATO's Quiet Turn to Autonomous War
DefenseSeptember 11, 202613 min read
Russia's Frozen War Is Cracking at the Table
GeopoliticsAugust 31, 202613 min read
Reddit Sees War. Polymarket Sees Peace. Who's Right on Iran?
GeopoliticsAugust 19, 202611 min read
Sanders Demands a Pause. Polymarket Prices It at 96%.
GeopoliticsAugust 16, 202611 min read
The South China Sea Is the Flashpoint Nobody Is Pricing
GeopoliticsJuly 20, 202615 min read
Who Gets to Start Wars? The Senate Just Forced the Question
GeopoliticsJuly 15, 202612 min read
Trump's Hormuz Toll Play and the 88% Market Spike
GeopoliticsJuly 13, 202614 min read
Netanyahu's 18-Point Collapse
GeopoliticsJuly 3, 202611 min read
The Trillionaire Playbook
GeopoliticsJune 12, 202611 min read
The Apache Exchange: US-Iran Goes Direct
GeopoliticsJune 10, 202611 min read
The Ceasefire That Wasn't
GeopoliticsJune 8, 202611 min read
Nationalize AI? Bernie's 50% Stake vs. Trump's Partnership
GeopoliticsJune 5, 202612 min read
Russia's Oreshnik on Kyiv: The Strike Nobody Could Stop
GeopoliticsMay 25, 202613 min read
California vs Washington on AI: Polymarket Says 10%
GeopoliticsMay 22, 202610 min read
Chamath's 18 Months: Taiwan, TSMC-Arizona, and the Clock
GeopoliticsMay 18, 202612 min read
Xi Said the Quiet Part: Taiwan 'Could Trigger Conflict'
GeopoliticsMay 15, 20268 min read
Trump Arrives in Beijing Already Losing the Room
GeopoliticsMay 13, 202612 min read
Sovereign Compute, Sovereign Army: The 2026 Through-Line
GeopoliticsMay 11, 202614 min read
AI Data Center Bans: 69 Jurisdictions, Polymarket 93%
GeopoliticsMay 8, 202610 min read
Polymarket's 78% Iran Peace Odds Misprice the Hormuz Tail
GeopoliticsMay 6, 202616 min read
Hormuz De-Escalation Reprices Energy and Compute Together
GeopoliticsMay 1, 202613 min read
Russia's Reserve Wall Cracks, Polymarket Won't Move
GeopoliticsApril 27, 202612 min read
Iran's Prediction Markets Tell Two Stories
GeopoliticsApril 20, 202611 min read
The Iran Ceasefire Is Theater
GeopoliticsApril 17, 202612 min read