https://thearcofpower.com Geopolitics. Power. Consequence. In-depth analysis of global power dynamics, defense strategy, economic statecraft, and diplomatic maneuvering. en-us Mon, 25 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://thearcofpower.com/blog/russia-oreshnik-kyiv-hypersonic-summer-offensive-calculus-2026 https://thearcofpower.com/blog/russia-oreshnik-kyiv-hypersonic-summer-offensive-calculus-2026 Mon, 25 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT Russia hit Kyiv with the Oreshnik MIRV hypersonic. Ukraine knew, couldn't stop it. Four lessons on Putin's summer-offensive calculus. geopolitics https://thearcofpower.com/blog/california-vs-washington-ai-newsom-polymarket-2026 https://thearcofpower.com/blog/california-vs-washington-ai-newsom-polymarket-2026 Fri, 22 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT Newsom signed an AI job-loss EO. Polymarket priced Trump's federal review out from 43% to 10% in a day. The states-vs-feds AI arbitrage is open. geopolitics https://thearcofpower.com/blog/chamath-18-months-taiwan-decoupling-tsmc-arizona-polymarket-2026 https://thearcofpower.com/blog/chamath-18-months-taiwan-decoupling-tsmc-arizona-polymarket-2026 Mon, 18 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT Chamath says Taiwan stops mattering in 18 months. Polymarket prices invasion at 7%. The disagreement isn't about war — it's about the decoupling clock. geopolitics https://thearcofpower.com/blog/xi-taiwan-trigger-conflict-post-summit-2026 https://thearcofpower.com/blog/xi-taiwan-trigger-conflict-post-summit-2026 Fri, 15 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT Xi told Trump in Beijing that mishandling Taiwan could spark clashes. Polymarket prices a 2026 invasion at 7%. One of them is wrong. geopolitics https://thearcofpower.com/blog/trump-xi-beijing-summit-iran-stalemate-2026 https://thearcofpower.com/blog/trump-xi-beijing-summit-iran-stalemate-2026 Wed, 13 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT Iran stalemate, 4% CPI, and a collapsing damage narrative leave Trump bargaining from weakness in Beijing. The risk: Taiwan policy drift without Congress. geopolitics https://thearcofpower.com/blog/sovereign-compute-radical-optionality-eu-army-through-line-2026 https://thearcofpower.com/blog/sovereign-compute-radical-optionality-eu-army-through-line-2026 Mon, 11 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT Jack Clark's 'Radical Optionality,' the EU army push, and Netanyahu's US-aid phase-out trace the same sovereign-capacity trade. geopolitics https://thearcofpower.com/blog/ai-data-center-bans-69-jurisdictions-polymarket-93 https://thearcofpower.com/blog/ai-data-center-bans-69-jurisdictions-polymarket-93 Fri, 08 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT Polymarket prices an AI data center moratorium at 93% YES. 69 jurisdictions ban new builds. The political-cost ledger catches up to the capex. geopolitics https://thearcofpower.com/blog/hormuz-french-vessel-strike-polymarket-78-peace-misprice-2026 https://thearcofpower.com/blog/hormuz-french-vessel-strike-polymarket-78-peace-misprice-2026 Wed, 06 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT A French container ship took a cruise missile in Hormuz May 5. The same day, Polymarket's US-Iran peace odds spiked +12% to 78%. The trade is the misprice. geopolitics https://thearcofpower.com/blog/uae-quits-opec-hormuz-cartel-fracture-2026 https://thearcofpower.com/blog/uae-quits-opec-hormuz-cartel-fracture-2026 Mon, 04 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT UAE's May 1 OPEC exit ends 59 years of cartel discipline. The Hormuz war, the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline, and who replaces the cartel. geopolitics https://thearcofpower.com/blog/hormuz-de-escalation-reprices-data-centers https://thearcofpower.com/blog/hormuz-de-escalation-reprices-data-centers Fri, 01 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT Polymarket's largest single-day mover ($4.4M, +75.4%) just bet on Trump ending Iran ops. Why the same chokepoint reprices Brent and AWS data-center risk. geopolitics https://thearcofpower.com/blog/russia-reserve-wall-polymarket-ceasefire-divergence-2026 https://thearcofpower.com/blog/russia-reserve-wall-polymarket-ceasefire-divergence-2026 Mon, 27 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT WaPo says Russia's mood is bleak; Russia's own minister says reserves are spent. Polymarket prices a long war. The narrative-vs-price gap is the trade. geopolitics https://thearcofpower.com/blog/china-panda-bonds-europe-yuan-strategy-hormuz-2026 https://thearcofpower.com/blog/china-panda-bonds-europe-yuan-strategy-hormuz-2026 Fri, 24 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT While the US bleeds in Hormuz, Beijing is cementing European loyalty through panda bonds. Q1 2026: record 88B yuan raised, 101% YoY surge. Here's the strategy. geopolitics https://thearcofpower.com/blog/iran-ceasefire-caspianreport-nuclear-hiding-2026 https://thearcofpower.com/blog/iran-ceasefire-caspianreport-nuclear-hiding-2026 Wed, 22 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT Trump extended the Iran truce indefinitely at Pakistan's request. What the deal-making conceals about the nuclear stalemate and Iran's enrichment clock. geopolitics https://thearcofpower.com/blog/uae-yuan-petrodollar-crisis-2026 https://thearcofpower.com/blog/uae-yuan-petrodollar-crisis-2026 Wed, 22 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT UAE warned Washington it might price oil in yuan if dollars run short. The petrodollar's quiet erosion and what it reveals about American power. geopolitics https://thearcofpower.com/blog/iran-prediction-markets-polymarket-insider-trading-ceasefire-2026 https://thearcofpower.com/blog/iran-prediction-markets-polymarket-insider-trading-ceasefire-2026 Mon, 20 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT $200M wagered on Iran's ceasefire. White House warned staff not to bet. What the markets got right — and what they're still getting wrong. geopolitics https://thearcofpower.com/blog/iran-ceasefire-hormuz-nuclear-sprint-enrichment-endgame-2026 https://thearcofpower.com/blog/iran-ceasefire-hormuz-nuclear-sprint-enrichment-endgame-2026 Fri, 17 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT Iran opened Hormuz on April 17. Every outlet led with it. None answered what matters: enrichment capability is untouched in any current framework. geopolitics https://thearcofpower.com/blog/china-iran-gambit-maximum-pressure-trump-hormuz-2026 https://thearcofpower.com/blog/china-iran-gambit-maximum-pressure-trump-hormuz-2026 Wed, 15 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT China buys Iranian oil, signals MANPADS supply, and offers mediation. Maximum pressure requires bilateral isolation. Beijing has broken all three. geopolitics https://thearcofpower.com/blog/strait-of-hormuz-us-blockade-uk-refusal-energy-markets-2026 https://thearcofpower.com/blog/strait-of-hormuz-us-blockade-uk-refusal-energy-markets-2026 Mon, 13 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT The US blockaded the Strait of Hormuz — 20% of global oil. UK refused to join. Robert Pape: NATO is 'for all practical purposes, dead.' geopolitics https://thearcofpower.com/blog/iran-us-ceasefire-built-on-sand-power-analysis https://thearcofpower.com/blog/iran-us-ceasefire-built-on-sand-power-analysis Sat, 11 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT A 2-week truce, incompatible demands, and three players who walked away stronger than they entered. The ceasefire isn't peace — it's a repositioning. geopolitics https://thearcofpower.com/blog/welcome-to-the-arc-of-power https://thearcofpower.com/blog/welcome-to-the-arc-of-power Wed, 08 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT Introducing a new publication dedicated to rigorous geopolitical analysis. Understanding power -- who holds it, how they wield it, and what comes next. geopolitics